Predicting Precipitation and NDVI Utilization of the Multi-level Linear Mixed-Effects Model and the CA-Markov Simulation Model

Authors

Fatima Belhaj, University Abdelmalek Essaâdi
Hlila Rachid, University Abdelmalek Essaâdi
Ouallali Abdessalam, Hassan II University of Casablanca
Aqil Tariq, Mississippi State University
Belkendil Abdeldjalil, Centre de Recherche en Aménagement du Territoire (CRAT)
Beroho Mohamed, Abdelmalek Essaädi University
Hassan Alzahrani, King Saud University
Hajra Mustafa, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Hesham el-Askary, Chapman UniversityFollow

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

3-10-2025

Abstract

The current work intends to reconstruct the spatiotemporal evolution of precipitation and the Normalized Differentiate Vegetation Index (NDVI) in the Loukkos watershed and provide scenarios for their recent and future evolution, therefore determining the degree of association. We conducted a study on the time series data of precipitation and NDVI from 1999 to 2019. The NDVI prediction is conducted using the CA-Markov model and the linear mixed-effects multi-level model (LME) with precipitation data from 2019 to 2040. The CA-Markov model was employed to predict the vegetation indices for 2029 and 2040 using 1999, 2009, and 2019 data. The model simulates future precipitation estimates for up to 2040 using different daily precipitation data series obtained from ten meteorological stations between 1999 and 2019. The accuracy of NDVI simulation is evaluated using kappa indices, specifically 𝐾_location of 88%, 𝐾_𝑛0 of 86%, and 𝐾_standard of 83%, indicating that the consistency between the simulated NDVI map of 2019 and the actual one is nearly perfect, indicating statistical reliability of our model. The precipitation forecast for the Loukkos watershed predicts that average annual precipitation will decrease by 11.4% between 1999 and 2040. In contrast, based on 2019, there will be an increase in low vegetation areas and a decline in dense regions in the eastern and western parts of the basin in 2029 (−12.89%) and 2040 (−12.78%), respectively. The findings of this study suggest that by 2040, the Loukkos watershed will be exposed to future climate hazards, such as reduced precipitation and vegetation. The integration of geoinformation and prediction models is a great resource for optimizing environmental planning to prepare and potentially mitigate the harmful effects of climate change and its consequences for both humanity and the environment.

Comments

This article was originally published in Climate Services, volume 38, in 2025. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100554

Recommended Citation

Belhaj, F., Rachid, H., Abdessalam, O., Tariq, A., Abdeldjalil, B., Mohamed, B., Alzahrani, H., Mustafa, H., El-Askary, H.M. (2025). Predicting precipitation and NDVI utilization of the multi-level linear mixed-effects model and the CA-markov simulation model. Climate Services, 38, 100554. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100554

Peer Reviewed

1

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Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.