Document Type


Publication Date



This study presents a theoretical and empirical regression model to measure the efficacy of vaccinations in reducing COVID death rates across states over the 3/10/21 to 12/28/22 period. During that period, it was estimated that the availability of vaccinations resulted in a reduction of 427,000 COVID deaths in the nation. To arrive at that estimate, other covariants were held constant. In particular, it was found that chronic disease should be included as an explanatory variable to arrive at unbiased measures of the efficacy of vaccinations in reducing deaths. In addition, the percentage of people over the age of 65 was found to be highly significant. The only ethnic/racial characteristic that was significant in explaining COVID deaths was the percentage of American Indians/Alaska Natives residing in a state. Other ethnic/racial characteristics, as well as variables representing population, density, governmental stringency, and income, were not significant over the period tested.


This article was originally published in Journal of Bioeconomics in 2023.

This scholarship is part of the Chapman University COVID-19 Archives.

Peer Reviewed



The author

Creative Commons License

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.



To view the content in your browser, please download Adobe Reader or, alternately,
you may Download the file to your hard drive.

NOTE: The latest versions of Adobe Reader do not support viewing PDF files within Firefox on Mac OS and if you are using a modern (Intel) Mac, there is no official plugin for viewing PDF files within the browser window.