Document Type
Article
Publication Date
12-21-2024
Abstract
Recent research identified 2022 as being the year of lowest seasonal April–May–June–July (AMJJ) observed streamflow for the Po River Basin (PRB) in the past two centuries. Expanding upon this research, we applied filters (2-year to 30-year filters) to the AMJJ observed streamflow and identified the late 20th and 21st century as displaying extreme drought. In this study, we introduce PALEO-RECON, an automated reconstruction tool developed to leverage tree ring-based proxies and streamline regression processes. Using PALEO-RECON, we reconstructed the AMJJ streamflow, applying traditional regression techniques and using a nested approach in which 30-, 40-, and 50-year windows within the ~200-year observed streamflow record (1807 to 2022) were evaluated to capture uncertainty. Focusing on the 21st century (2000 to 2022), while several droughts in the ~2000-year paleo record may have exceeded the 2000 to 2022 drought, the recent PRB drought ending in 2022 was the lowest 23-year period in approximately 500 years, acknowledging that uncertainty increases as we move further back in time. When examining paleo and observed AMJJ streamflow records, deficit and surplus periods were evaluated, focusing on the potential “whiplash” between drought and pluvial events. We observed an increase in the frequency of whiplash events, which may be associated with a changing climate.
Recommended Citation
Ramírez Molina, A.A.; Tootle, G.; Formetta, G.; Piechota, T.; Gong, J. Extraordinary 21st Century Drought in the Po River Basin (Italy). Hydrology 2024, 11, 219. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology11120219
Copyright
The authors
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Included in
Climate Commons, Environmental Health and Protection Commons, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment Commons, Environmental Monitoring Commons, Fresh Water Studies Commons, Meteorology Commons
Comments
This article was originally published in Hydrology, volume 11, issue 12, in 2024. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology11120219