We investigate the price dynamics of large market-capitalization U.S. equity exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in order to uncover trader motivations and strategy. We show that prices of highly liquid ETFs can deviate significantly from their daily net asset values. By adjusting for changes in valuations, we report the impact of non-classical variables including price trend and volatility using data from 2008 to 2011. We find a cubic nonlinearity in the trend suggesting that traders are not only aware of the underreaction of others, but also self-optimize by anticipating others' reactions, and sell when the uptrend is stronger than usual.
Caginalp, Gunduz, Mark DeSantis, and Akin Sayrak. "The nonlinear price dynamics of US equity ETFs." Journal of Econometrics 183.2 (2014): 193-201. doi: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2014.05.009
The authors. Published by Elsevier.
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