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A new town is strategically built within a short period compared to naturally developed cities. It is considered an appropriate study area for analyzing the urban climate problems such as surface urban heat islands (SUHIs) that is differently generated according to urban planning and development. In this study, we suggest comprehensive method for determining and comparing changes in surface UHI distribution during 1989–2048 in two new towns with different urban planning. First, a substantial increase in built-up areas was observed from 1989 (< 5%) to 2018 (> 40%) in both new towns. However, SUHI phenomenon-increasing patterns were different of about 12.25% depending on urban planning and urban morphology. Results also showed the importance of vertical and horizontal structures which can have a great influence on SUHI intensity and accordingly, the difference in SUHI distribution between two new towns was confirmed. Moreover, without effective mitigation, the built-up area in both new towns is estimated to increase to approximately 60%, and the SUHI intensity in most areas to increase by 4 °C in 2048. In addition, the spread and intensification of the SUHI phenomenon are predicted to be greater due to the characteristics of the building structure and the active urban expansion. Thus, these results combined with architectural assessment models can improve the understanding of thermal environmental impacts of urbanization and provide directions for sustainable urban development and renovation.


This is a pre-copy-editing, author-produced PDF of an article accepted for publication in Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, volume 194, in 2022 following peer review. The final publication may differ and is available at Springer via

A free-to-read copy of the final published article is available here.



Available for download on Wednesday, April 12, 2023